AUSTRALIA’S SECURITY DILEMMA

China’s Naval Drills - A Storm in a Teacup

China’s recent naval drills in the Tasman Sea between Australia and New Zealand were denounced in Australia as an “unwarranted act of intimidation and provocation”. The panic generated by the Australian media over Chinese ships circumnavigating Australia led to calls for increased defence spending even though Australian ships and aircraft alongside the US, constantly sail off the Chinese coast and, just like the Chinese, Australian ships also engage in live fire exercises. Former Chief of Defence, Admiral Chris Barrie remarked that it was perfectly legitimate behaviour under international law, and Australia’s Defence Minister, Richard Marles acknowledged that the Chinese were complying with international law saying, “There is actually a greater frequency of Australian naval vessels closer to China than there are Chinese vessels closer to Australia”.[i]

Australia, together with the US regularly sails off the Chinese coast in the name of “Freedom of Navigation” even though it is well known that the Chinese have no interest in preventing commercial shipping from sailing the South China Sea. Indeed, the vast majority of the trade in this waterway is to and from China itself.

Does China Threaten Australia’s Peace and Security?

China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi has presented China as a responsible and stable global power saying that China would provide certainty in this uncertain world and would be a just and righteous force for world peace and stability. China’s foreign policy is based on the principle of mutual respect and a determination to regain what it regards as its rightful place in the world, but China is neither expansionist nor aggressive. It has a stable political system and its people have a high degree of trust in their government.

Since the 1980s, China’s domestic economy has flourished. It is now truly integrated into the global economy. It’s university and college system produces 11 million graduates each year. With China’s emergence, the US sees a competitor with the capability of being a leading player in the international system.[ii] 

A New Wolf Warrior?

Australia was targeted by Beijing during its boycott of Australian products from 2020 after Australia called for an investigation into China’s role in the Covid pandemic. This led Australia to describe China as a “Wolf Warrior”. China’s restrictions have since been lifted and Australia is back in China’s good books. Australian farmers are now benefiting from increasingly favourable trading terms with China. This could increase even further if Beijing targets the US in response to its latest tariffs, creating opportunities for a growing array of Australian goods including beef, lobster, cotton, timber, wheat and dairy.

In something of a role reversal, the White House is now imposing widespread tariffs internationally and calling for aggressive measures to fundamentally transform the US economy, with Trump saying the tariffs will bring manufacturing jobs back to the United States and claiming that “For years we have been ripped off by virtually every country in the world, both friend and foe. But those days are over”.[iii] 

On 2 April, Trump unveiled his “Liberation Day” tariffs hitting nearly every nation in the world. Despite Australia’s Prime Minister Albanese’s efforts to persuade Trump to exempt Australia from the tariffs, Australia will face 10% “reciprocal” tariffs, the minimum base rate, although Trump has signalled potentially tougher barriers for Australian beef. Albanese reacted saying the tariffs were totally unwarranted and that they are “not the act of a friend”.

The Washington Post reports that a new tariff of 34% on Chinese goods will come on top of the 20% levy already imposed and is in addition to existing tariffs on goods such as appliances, machinery and clothing. China will retaliate.

Has the US emerged as the new global “Wolf Warrior”?

Australia’s Dependence on the USA

For 70 years Canberra has regarded the US as its indispensable ally, and the ANZUS Treaty is seen as the nation’s security guarantee even though the US has never been bound by ANZUS to defend Australia. In return, Australia has sent troops to fight and die in US wars including Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. In 2021 under its then Prime Minister Scott Morrison, Australia secretly signed up to the $368 billion AUKUS deal. Australia will also spend billions building a nuclear submarine base in Fremantle for the US. This is in addition to Australia hosting B-52 nuclear capable bombers in the Northern Territory, thousands of US Marines in Darwin and US spy bases at Pine Gap and in North-West Australia. Every such US military base is a potential nuclear target in any future US war in the region. Would the US risk Los Angeles for Perth or New York for Alice Springs if any of those bases were attacked? The answer is NO!

It is no exaggeration to state that during Morrison’s tenure, he inflicted more havoc and danger on Australia than has ever been experienced under any former Australian leader. It is an embarrassment that his successor, Anthony Albanese then adopted AUKUS within hours without debate, not even amongst his colleagues.

AUKUS does not make Australia safer. Instead, it puts the nation at greater risk. Australia’s greatest security asset is not the United States but rather its geography. Australia is located in the most geopolitically secure part of the planet. Instead of taking advantage of our geographical location, Australia attempts to project military force thousands of kilometres away in the South China Sea potentially becoming entangled in conflicts which in no way serve Australia’s national interests.[iv] 

Earlier this year, Republican congressman, Michael McCaul said that he saw Australia as the beachhead to counter China and that is why AUKUS is so important for America! 

Three wise comments are highly relevant in Australia’s current circumstances:

In 2023 Henry Kissinger said, “It may be dangerous to be America’s enemy, but to be America’s friend is fatal.”

In his book, Dangerous Allies published in 2014, Australia’s former Prime Minister Malcolm Fraser observed:

“Our leaders argue that we need to keep our alliance with US strong in order to ensure our defence in the event of an aggressive foe. Yet the most likely reason that Australia would need to confront an aggressive foe is our strong alliance with the United States. We need America for defence from an attacker who is likely to attack us because we use America for defence.”

Speaking at Australia’s National Press Club on 31 March 2025, Gareth Evans (Australia’s former Minister of Foreign Affairs) said:

 “The crazy irony is that we are spending an eye-watering amount to build new capability to meet military threats which are most likely to arise simply because we have that capability and are using its to assist the United States”. Evans contends that what AUKUS has done for Australia is to “paint more targets on our back”.

The AUKUS agreement provides that before any submarines can be sold to Australia, the US President must certify that America’s relinquishing a submarine  will not diminish the US Navy’s capability. Thus, the US could pull out of the deal at any future time if the then president decides that the sale could threaten America’s own naval capability. The trouble is that the US is currently producing boats at only half the rate needed  to service its own needs.

Imagine a secure Australia Without America

It is time for Australia to find a better way. Prime Minister Albanese frequently uses the line regarding China that “We will cooperate where we can and disagree where we must.” It would be a very good idea for Australia to apply the same common sense approach in its relationship with the US.

As The Wall Street Journal reported after Trump unveiled his new tariffs, the US post-war decision to spread free-trade produced seven decades of rising prosperity at home and abroad but this era is now ending and America’s lost influence will be considerable. Trump’s tariff onslaught will give China an opening to court American allies such as South Korea, Japan and Europe.

Australia may have to contemplate a possible end of the US Alliance. It is unrealistic for Australia to believe that it can expect the US to fight a nuclear war to defend Australia. However, can Australia defend itself against China? In truth, China does not pose a military threat to Australia, but even if it does, it is most unlikely that the US  would come to the rescue of its ally.

Nuclear powered submarines may be suitable if Australia plans to operate in the northern hemisphere, potentially in a conflict with America against China but AUKUS and confronting China is not the only choice. Australia has a 34,000 km coastline and is currently forced to rely on an unreliable fleet of ageing boats to patrol its coast.[v] Australia’s priority is and should be to protect its continent and for that purpose, conventionally powered diesel submarines would suffice and would be an advantage in shallow, continental shelf waters. Australia’s economic future is in Asia and China is its most important trading partner. Australia has the opportunity to build a more comprehensive relationship with China as well as its neighbours in Southeast Asia.[vi]

Australia should withdraw from AUKUS and revert to the smaller French nuclear powered subs which would be significantly cheaper and quicker to build, own and operate. For this, Australia may have to go cap in hand to the French. The enormous savings from pulling the plug on AUKUS, sooner rather than later would enable Australia to secure the boats it realistically needs to patrol its vast coastline with greater certainty and at a fraction of the cost. The resulting savings could wisely be invested in what Australia really needs such as more and better schools, hospitals and infrastructure, and a high speed rail network.

AUDI ALTERAM PARTEM – HEAR THE OTHER SIDE

[i]  Paul Malone, Cut defence spending to make us stronger and safer, 15 March 2025

[ii] Australia-China relations: a question of trust, Jocelyn Chey (visiting Prof at the University of Sydney and Adjunct professor at Western Sydney University and UTS she is a member of the Order of Australia (AM) and a Fellow of the Australian Institute of International Affairs.

[iii]  Washington Post, Trump pushes aides to go bigger on tariffs, 30 March 2025

[iv]  Aukus, Trump and Independence, David Shoebridge, 15 March 2025

[v] The Australian, Failure to upgrade ageing subs sees Australia falter at the first AUKUS hurdle, Ben Packham 16 March 2025

[vi]  Chris Barrie, former chief of the Australian Defence Force, 31 March 2025