CHINA AND USA IN 2025

Peace Need NOT be a Pipedream  

At his inauguration,  Donald Trump stated emphatically that his proudest legacy would be that of a peacemaker and unifier saying, “We will measure our success not only by the battles we win, but also by the wars that we end, and perhaps most importantly, the wars we never get into.” Trump signalled continued diplomatic engagement with China despite an escalating trade war and said about China’s President Xi Jinping, “I happen to like him a lot” and have a very good personal relationship with him. Days before his inauguration, Trump had a phone call with Xi and expressed optimism about the future of the relationship with China, adding that he and Xi would do “everything possible to make the World more peaceful and safe”.

President Xi Jinping has said many times that his global concept is that of a “Community with a shared future for mankind.”  When Xi met former Secretary of State, Antony Blinken in April 2024, he said “The two countries should be partners, not rivals; they should seek common ground instead of vicious competition. I have said many times that the Earth is big enough for China and the United States to develop together and prosper independently.”

Sun Tzu, an ancient Chinese military general and philosopher famously wrote, “The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.”

In a recent discussion involving Graham Allison (author of  “Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’ Trap) and Dr Henry Huiyao Wang (president of the Centre for China and Globalisation based in Beijing), Allison spoke of his bet that by January 2026, relations between the US and China would significantly improve and he noted that during the recent US election campaign, not one candidate had anything nice to say about China, with one exception, Trump who said “I very much respect Xi Jinping. I want China to do well.” As for Xi, he has said over and over that what he wants in the relationship with the US is mutual respect, peaceful competition, and to reach win-win agreements.[i]

China’s Two Sessions

China’s annual plenary sessions are held in March each year. At a press conference during those sessions Foreign Minister Wang Yi presented China as a source of stability saying Beijing would fight for peace while staunchly defending its interests.[ii] Wang spoke of how China would engage the Trump administration saying that “mutual respect was the basic principle governing relations” and cooperation between the US and China would bring about mutual benefits. He also said “We (China) will be a just and righteous force for world peace and stability”.

The Counter Argument

In a recent interview, Ravi Agrawal (editor in chief of Foreign Policy) spoke with Rush Doshi (author of  The Long Game: China’s Grand Strategy to Displace American Order), about Trump’s China Policy.[iii]

Doshi claims that China seeks to displace the US as the leading superpower and he insists that China’s goal is to be number one. Doshi asks, “Why does China pursue global bases in Latin America. Why would it want a deepwater military base in Argentina and why in the Middle East?” He answers his own question, saying, “It’s because it wants to have global-power projection capability. It wants to dominate global supply chains and it wants the world dependent on China”.

In response, Agrawal argues that in reality, the United States has the very same ambitions and  Agrawal suggested that Beijing’s ambitions were more limited, either to regional hegemony or coexistence with the US.

The Emergence of  DeepSeek

Artificial intelligence has emerged as the main arena in the US-China high-tech rivalry. The sudden arrival of DeepSeek has exposed the weakness in America’s strategy to contain China’s tech progress. The low-cost DeepSeek model was constructed using significantly fewer computing resources than its American counterparts.[iv] Unlike OpenAI, which charges up to $200 per month for its services, DeepSeek offers its platform free of charge to individual users and charges only $0.14 per million tokens for developers, making it popular with both small businesses and developers.[v]

The tech sector is poised to be the cornerstone of China’s economic strength in the 21st century and China’s humanoid robots are expected to become the next groundbreaking innovation, transforming human production and reshaping the global industrial landscape. With China’s population on the decline, robotic advancements will help in future proofing its economy.[vi]

Financial Prowess 

Some Western data suggests China’s economy is falling behind America’s. However, China’s gross domestic product (GDP) is growing at around 5% pa while the US grew at 3.1% in 2024. The two basic measures for comparing GDP are, GDP at market exchange rates or GDP based on purchasing power parity (PPP), which adjusts for differences in the cost of living. On the PPP measure, China’s GDP is ahead of America’s and is pulling further ahead every year. Measuring how much a person in America, France or China can afford depends more on local prices than on exchange rates and to determine how wealthy people are in these different countries the PPP measure is what counts.

China has set a goal of achieving an average annual growth rate of 4.6% over the next decade and the rapid adoption of DeepSeek across different sectors of the Chinese economy has given China’s growth prospects an extra boost.[vii]

If there is a shadow over global trade in general, and especially over the US/China relationship, it is the uncertainty brought about by Trump’s tariffs. If the world embarks on a path towards a trade war, this will potentially have a significant negative impact on the growth prospects of the global economy and may eventually backfire on the US economy.[viii]

Taiwan

Xi Jinping has said many times that reunification with Taiwan is an unstoppable process. In a phone call with Donald Trump only three days before his inauguration, Xi reiterated that “The Taiwan question was a matter of national sovereignty and territorial integrity for Beijing.”

What is indisputable is that on 25 October 1971, the UN General Assembly adopted resolution 2758 by an overwhelming majority,  affirming that the PRC government is the sole legal government representing the whole of China, including Taiwan. As for Australia, the 1972 Joint Communiqué stated that Canberra recognised the government of the People’s Republic of China as the sole legal government of China and acknowledged that Taiwan was a province of the PRC.

Imagine for a moment how the USA might react if Hawaii, which became a USA state in 1959, were to announce its decision to secede. That may not be so farfetched. According to Wikipedia, the Hawaiian sovereignty movement represents a campaign to reestablish an independent Hawaii out of a wish for sovereignty, self-determination and self-governance!

China’s Military Capabilities

In March 2024, the South China Morning Post reported that Chinese scientists had designed a surface to air missile with a kill range exceeding 2,000 km and in December 2024 the US reported that China was set to field weapons guided by space-based sensors with ranges exceeding 1,600 km. China has recently unveiled a new generation of stealth combat aircraft, J-36 which could redefine air combat and potentially challenge America’s aerial dominance in Asia. In contrast to China’s advancements, US efforts appear in disarray.[ix]

As to submarines, China has unveiled a detection technique capable of identifying even the stealthiest submarines by tracking their magnetic wake, thus threatening the traditional stealth and strategic utility of submarines. This new system could threaten US submarine operations in the Taiwan Strait and in the South China Sea and this detection technology might even mark the beginning of the end for submarine stealth?[x]

China possesses the world’s largest maritime fighting force, operating 234 warships compared to the US Navy with 219 and in 2024, China launched a unique carrier with three superstructures raising questions about its role in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait. It is designed like an amphibious assault ship and could deploy drones and helicopters for scientific research while also being capable of conducting military operations.[xi]

In Conclusion

Peace can be achieved between China and America with mutual respect and recognition that  “The Earth is big enough for China and the United States to develop together and prosper independently”.

AUDI ALTERAM PARTEM – HEAR THE OTHER SIDE

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[i] Escaping Thucydides' Trap, 14 March 25

[ii] China's Wang Yi at the "two sessions", Self China Morning Post, 7 March 25

[iii] What is Trump's China Policy?, Foreign Policy, 10 March 25

[iv] What does rise of DeepSeek meaning for US-China tech war, South China Morning Post,27 Jan 25

[v] US blows AIA Lead in race with China, Newsweek Geoscope, 28 Jan 25

[vi] China's government is supercharging the rise of humanoid robots, South China Morning Post, 6

Feb 25

[vii] DeepSeek could burst "Peak China" myth, South China Morning Post,18 Feb 25

[viii] Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs” heighten uncertainty for global trade, Xinhua, 17 March 25

[ix] China's J-36 stealth fighter another blow to US air superiority, Asia Times, 2 Jan 25

[x] China's magnetic tech can detect US stealth sums, Asia Times, 10 Feb 25

[xi] China's triple-island mystery carrier shakes up naval battlefield, Asia Times, 3 Dec 24