When Eurasia Rises, the World Will Shake
The countries which are at the core of Eurasia are the five Central Asian states, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan, as well as Afghanistan, Mongolia and China. These countries represent the bulk of Eurasia’s vast landmass. They are coming together to transform global power dynamics in the region, aiming to bring about a fairer multipolar world order.
The Eurasian “Heartland” (broadly referring to the interlinked continents of Africa, Asia and Europe) was identified over a century ago by Halford Mackinder as the world’s geopolitical pivot, when he said that whichever state controlled Central Asia would be the dominant world power. Based on current trends, China will control the Eurasian Heartland and become the dominant global power. There is little to suggest that the US will return to Eurasia to contest China in its Heartland[i].
It was Napoleon Bonaparte who said, “Let China sleep because when China awakes the world will shake” - just as the world will surely shake as Eurasia rises.
Major Projects
Mega-projects are being undertaken in Eurasia via China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) aiming to connect Asia, Europe and Africa in a network of rail, road and maritime infrastructure. These projects include the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to provide access for China to the deep water port of Gwadar, and China building the Western Europe-China Expressway to link China’s Yellow Sea coast with Western Europe[ii].
China is indeed shaking Eurasia with the world’s largest infrastructure projects, much greater than the USA post war Marshall Plan. As Parag Khanna points out, the world will not wait for permission from the United States to globalize. If Washington fails to provide an alternative, it will allow China to redraw the map of Eurasia. The competition for Eurasia, the “World Island” is well underway and is led by China.
BRICS is a powerful and growing global bloc. Its current membership comprises Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and United Arab Emirates, with 40 more countries having applied to become members. The current members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) are India, China, Russia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Pakistan, Tajikistan and Belarus, as well as numerous dialogue partners which include Turkey and Saudi Arabia. BRICS and SCO are expected to more than match the West during coming decades.
During the 12 months ending December 2022, the trade volumes between Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan increased by more than 620% from $48 million in 2021 to $305 million in 2022. The nations of Central Asia and Southwest Asia recognise that Eurasian integration is the pathway to a future which will benefit their true interests[iii].
In December 2022, the US Agency for International Development (USAID) hosted a conference on the future of Eurasia’s “Middle Corridor” which refers to 3 Eurasian corridors of development designed to promote trade and commerce[iv]. The Northern Corridor consists of railways and pipelines running from China to Kazakhstan, Russia, and on to Europe. The Southern Corridor provides rail connections from China to Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon before reaching Europe via land-based connections in Turkey. The Middle Corridor features rail and sea transit for goods from China to Europe through Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, and Turkey. USAID has no say in and no control over these developments.
Challenges from the USA and the EU
In January 2020 following President Biden’s inauguration, the US introduced the “Build Back Better” (BBB) plan. Later, in March 2021, Biden and Boris Johnson unveiled another plan called the “Green Belt Initiative” (GBI). Then, in September 2021, the EU announced the “Global Green Gateway” (GGG) as Europe’s response to the BRI. However, the GGG soon faded away, as did the BBB and the GBI.
In 2022, the White House announced The Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment, promising $600 billion over five years for recipient nations in Africa, Southwest Asia, Latin America, East Asia, and Eastern Europe. The goal was to provide poorer nations with an alternative to China’s “predatory lending ambitions”. However, few of the nations which were offered this “life raft” have shown much interest.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
China’s so-called “debt behaviour” has given rise to complaints in some of the countries which have signed on to the BRI resulting in their needing to renegotiate their debt obligations to China. Nevertheless, China’s BRI has proved to be strongly positive in building infrastructure that would not have otherwise been built and any negative sentiments need to be balanced against the enormous benefits of China’s engagement in those regions. Despite criticisms, 150 countries have signed up to participate in the BRI[v].
Democracies V “Autocrats, Illiberal Powers and Aggressors”
The contest for Eurasia brought unprecedented cooperation among the world’s democracies during the 20th century, laying the foundation for the liberal order which brought prosperity to much of the globe. However, since February 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, Western commentary has been consumed by the notion of an “alliance of autocracies”.
As Hal Brands writes, Geopolitics came to prominence in an era of clashes to rule the world by controlling Eurasia[vi]. Geopolitics has always placed a special focus on Eurasia. In 1904, Halford Mackinder forecast that the continental powers (especially Russia) would try to rule Eurasia on the way to ruling the world. The democratic school of geopolitics saw a supercontinent run by illiberal powers as a nightmare to be avoided while the “authoritarian” school sees it as a dream to be achieved.
In both World War I and World War II, Germany, Japan and the Soviet Union seized vast tracts of Eurasia. However, the US was committed to keeping Eurasia fragmented by establishing alliances spanning its Atlantic and Pacific rimlands. Those alliances wielded power ruthlessly to prevent the world’s “worst aggressors” from ruling its most vital regions. Despite those efforts, the world now faces a new era of rivalry from “autocratic” challengers.
According to Brands, Putin forged alliances with China and Iran hoping to make Eurasia a stronghold for autocratic, anti-American powers. Brands goes so far as to suggest (without evidence) that the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 was intended to accelerate this program by conquering Ukraine which links the Eurasian heartland to the dynamic European rimland. Brands also contends that by undertaking the biggest naval buildup since World War II, Beijing is developing the strength to take Taiwan and to control the vital seas of the Western Pacific which would make China supreme within Eurasia’s most vibrant region.
What Comes Next?
China’s access to Eurasia’s resources, markets, and ports could potentially transform China from an East Asian power to a global superpower. Kishore Mahbubani, the former President of the UN Security Council recently said, “The Unipolar Moment that the United States enjoyed at the end of the Cold War is gone, but many people haven’t adjusted to the fact that it’s gone and that you now have to live in a world where you have to contend with peer powers and other significant powers who are not necessarily going to bend to the wishes of the great powers so easily".
In the meantime, Eurasia presses on with a blistering array of mega-projects, ushering in a new economic future for the region. Tectonic shifts are underway in global politics and a fairer multipolar world order is being born. To resist this, the US may need to compromise some of its values. It will entail buttressing an arc of friendly “authoritarians” such as Singapore, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
“Don’t be shocked if intensifying rivalry causes Washington to engage in covert skullduggery, economic sabotage, and proxy warfare. Fights for supremacy lead relatively respectable democracies to do some ugly things. The consequences of losing a war to China in the Western Pacific would surely be epochal!” [vii]
“AUDI ALTERAM PARTEM” – HEAR THE OTHER SIDE!
__________________________
[i] Great Game On, Geoff Raby, 2024
[ii] As Eurasia Awakes Our World Will Shake, Eugene Doyle, August 2024
[iii] An Atlanticist frenzy to stifle Europe-Asia integration, Matthew Ehret, The Cradle, Jan 2023
[iv] The Cradle, Matthew Ehret
[v] Great Game On
[vi] Hal Brands, John Hopkins School of advanced International Studies
[vii] The Promise and Peril of Geopolitics, Hal Brands, Foreign Policy, Dec 2023
Comentários