There can be little doubt that Donald Trump’s remarkable election victory will have a significant, though somewhat unpredictable impact on US foreign policy and on the world. However, barely a day goes by without reports of the diminishing global influence of the West and in particular that of the United States of America.
BRICS & SCO
The 16th BRICS summit held in Russia and hosted by Putin, from 22-24 October will have a significant positive impact on the Global South. The original members of BRICS are Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, but the group was expanded in early 2024 by adding Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and United Arab Emirates. The organisation now represents more than 33% of global GDP and has a combined population of 3.5 billion (45% of the world’s population).
All members of BRICS are committed to the principles of the UN Charter – peace and security, human rights, the rule of law, and development. Unlike President Biden who frames the challenge of our age as a struggle between “Democracy and Autocracy”, Good V Evil”, BRICS is not ideologically driven and its members include democracies (South Africa, Brazil, and India), a theocracy (Iran), a monarchy (UAE) and so called “dictatorships” (China and Russia). Despite these differences, BRICS remains the key platform for moving towards multipolarity and the constraint of hegemonic power.
As Geoff Raby[i] has written, the world order created under US leadership at the end of World War II “Is now being eclipsed by a new multipolar order at probably a greater rate than anyone could have imagined a decade ago”. US-led efforts to isolate Putin have failed and instead “highlight its waning influence globally”.
BRICS recognizes the key role of the G20 as the premier global forum for multilateral economic and financial cooperation. The G20 presidency was held by Indonesia in 2022, India in 2023 and will be held by Brazil in November 2024, to be followed by South Africa in 2025 – the fourth consecutive year in which the G20 presidency will be held by a country of the Global South.
The members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), located at the heart of Eurasia are India, China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Pakistan, Iran, and Belarus. The organization promotes multilateral cooperation and offers a platform for dialogue and collaboration. In a time of growing Western protectionism and sanctions, the SCO offers a counterbalance and stands as a beacon of hope.
India & China
India and China are both members of SCO, BRICS and the G20. However, political rivalry between India and China over their 3,440 km border has caused confrontations, the most recent of which occurred in the Galwan Valley in 2020 when 20 Indian and four Chinese troops were killed. However, Modi and Xi met on the sidelines of the BRICS Summit and agreed on “disengagement and resolution of issues in these areas”, announcing that their representatives would meet to find solutions to “explore a fair, reasonable and mutually acceptable solution to the boundary question”[ii].
Between 2016 and 2020 India signed significant agreements with the US leading Modi to expect a closer alignment with America. However, in 2021, the US conducted “Freedom of Navigation Operations” in the Indian Ocean sparking a backlash in the Indian media which accused America of fueling anti-India sentiment. The US also warned India of “consequences” if it continued to purchase Russian oil and insisted that India abandon its relations with Russia. However, India is and remains Russia’s largest oil buyer while Russia accounts for 36% of India’s arms imports.
The US has also applied pressure on India to distance itself from China and to quit BRICS. However, US investment in India remains minimal while India’s trade dependence on China has increased significantly. The economic benefits which India had expected from alignment with the US have not materialized and Modi now recognises that India can obtain technology, investment, and market opportunities from China. In Modi’s third term he will be looking to reverse course by drawing closer to China[iii]. The warming relations between China and India will generate greater momentum for BRICS to deliver on its vision of a new global order.
United States of America
The 20th century was marked by hate, irrationality, and atrocity. The Great War exposed the pretension that democracy would guarantee peace. The Great Depression exposed the pretension that democracy would guarantee prosperity. World War II threatened to administer the coup de grace. Liberal society was fighting for its life. The political, economic, and moral failures of democracy handed the initiative to nations of the Global South.
The age of the Pacific has arrived and the economic magnetism of Asia foreshadows historic shifts in the planetary balance of power. Asian tradition values the group more than the individual, order more than argument, authority more than liberty and solidarity more than freedom. Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore and Mahathir bin Mohamad of Malaysia contrast Asian discipline and stability with the disorder and decadence which they impute to the West.
Democracy survived the 20th century by the skin of its teeth but will not enjoy a free ride through the 21st century. No form of government needs great leaders so much as democracy does now[iv].
Washington policymakers delude themselves if they assume that the US continues to enjoy unchallenged primacy in Asia[v]. The US no longer enjoys unrivalled status as the world’s sole superpower and increasingly loses influence in Asia. Asian states do not want to choose, but most say they would choose China over the US if forced to pick. For the last several decades, China’s GDP growth has been 2 to 3 times faster than that of the US and the growth of real wages in China has been even greater.
The Trump Factor
Trump’s remarkable, landslide victory and his imminent return to the White House has been described as an “extraordinary and a stunning comeback”, even a “crushing victory”. Despite his “unpredictability” it is worth recalling how, during the 2016 primaries Trump was contemptuous about the “forever wars”. Ultimately, the American voters voted for him and for peace. This time Trump has repeatedly promised to end the war in Ukraine.
In his acceptance speech, Trump said, “I will fight for you, for your family and your future. I will not rest until we have delivered the strong, safe and prosperous America that our children deserve, and that you deserve. This will truly be the golden age of America. This is a magnificent victory for the American people that will allow us to make America great again.”
Is it too much to hope that in his second term in office, President Trump will hear and take heed of the voices of the Global South?
BRICS is not an Enemy of the West[vi]
The BRICS Summit in Kazan was held under the theme of “Strengthening Multilateralism for Just Global Development and Security”. Twenty-four world leaders attended. More than 30 others were interested in joining BRICS leading to the introduction of a new category of “BRICS Partner Countries”. The initial thirteen Partners Countries are: from Africa - Algeria, Uganda, and Nigeria; from Latin America - Bolivia and Cuba; from ASEAN - Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam; and from Central Europe - Belarus, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Türkiye.
The BRICS Declaration includes proposals for the reform of the UN Security Council, the IMF and the WTO while continuing to recognise the key role of the G20 as the premier global forum for multilateral cooperation. The Declaration also reiterates the need to abide by the UN Charter as well as a commitment to the peaceful resolution of disputes through diplomacy and mediation.
Indian Prime Minister Modi advocated a “people-centred BRICS”, not one which seeks to replace global institutions, but rather to reform and improve them.
AUDI ALTERAM PARTEM – HEAR THE OTHER SIDE
______________________________
[i] A new global order has arrived, AFR (Raby served as Australia's Ambassador to China (2007-11) and has also served as Ambassador to the WTO and to APEC
[ii] BBC News 25 Oct 24 – What led to Modi and Xi Meeting and thawing ties
[iii] Asia Times 24 Oct 24 – Why Modi’s shifting India away from the US toward China
[iv] Written by Arthur M.Schlesinger in 1997. His paper was republished by Foreign Affairs on 3 Nov 24 – two days before the US Election
[v] Asia Times 28 Oct 24 – Forget Gaza and Ukraine, East Asia's brewing war will matter more
[vi] RT 2 Nov 24, Paper by Kanwal Sibal, former Indian Ambassador to Russia (2004-2007)
Comentários